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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

一 |     While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。    专题：《联合国防治荒漠化公约》第十七次缔约方大会　　新浪财经ESG评级中心提供包括资讯、报告、培训、咨询等在内的14项ESG服务，助力上市公司传播ESG理念，提升ESG可持续发展表现。点击查看【ESG评级中心服务手册】　　新浪财经 张傲/发自乌兰巴托　　《联合国防治荒漠化公约》第十七届缔约方大会（COP17）于8月17日至28日在蒙古国乌兰巴托举办。大会期间，联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）土地权属团队负责人、高级土地权属事务官沃德·安西尤（Ward Anseeuw）对话新浪财经时表示，牧区治理不应走土地私有化和个体确权的老路，而应以集体权利为核心，允许同一块土地在不同时间、不同用途下，由不同主体灵活使用。　　安西尤指出，牧民流动性强，土地由集体共同使用。因此，管理制度应尊重牧民祖辈相传的集体权利和使用习惯，不宜照搬普遍采用的土地登记办法。普遍采用的办法要求将每块地登记到个人名下，但牧区土地在多数情况下并不属于某一个人，因此并不适用。　　安西尤认为，要改变这种以个人登记为核心的做法，需要做到两点。

二 | 第一，不能只承认个人，而要承认牧民集体对土地的权利，尊重他们祖辈相传的放牧和使用习惯。第二，不能只保护“这块地归谁所有”这一种权利，还要保护放牧、通行、采集等多种权利。他引用“权利束”（bundle of rights）概念说明，土地上的权利并非单一，而是多种权利并存。因此，保护土地权利时要更灵活，既要考虑牧民、农户等不同群体，也要考虑不同的权利类型。　　安西尤举例说，在蒙古，大约从五月到九月可以放牧，但一年中的其他时间，同一片土地可能会有其他用途，也可能由不同的人来使用。

三 | 在非洲热带地区也是如此：某些季节土地用于放牧，其他季节同一片土地可能被围起来用作农田，禁止牲畜进入，之后又重新开放。也就是说，不同的人可以在一年中的不同时间，对同一块土地享有不同的权利。　　在安西尤看来，牧区土地制度不应只问“这块地归谁”，而要承认集体权利和多种使用权，并根据不同季节、不同用途灵活安排。这才是更适合牧区的可持续土地管理方式。　　新浪财经ESG评级中心简介　　新浪财经ESG评级中心是业内首个中文ESG专业资讯和评级聚合平台，致力于宣传和推广可持续发展，责任投资，与ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）价值理念，传播ESG的企业实践行动和榜样力量，推动中国ESG事业的发展，促进中国ESG评估标准的建立和企业评级的提升。　　依托ESG评级中心，新浪财经发布多只ESG创新指数，为关注企业ESG表现的投资者提供更多选择。

四 | 同时，新浪财经成立中国ESG领导者组织论坛，携手中国ESG领导企业和合作伙伴，通过环境、社会和公司治理理念，推动建立适合中国时代特征的ESG评价标准体系，促进中国资产管理行业ESG投资发展。责任编辑：王进和。

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